Ford Posts Record Q3 Revenue of $50.5 Billion — But Novelis Fire Forces Guidance Cut
Ford Motor Company reported record third-quarter revenue of $50.5 billion, EPS of $0.45 beating estimates, but the Novelis aluminum supplier fire has forced a cut to full-year guidance.
Ford Motor Company reported record third-quarter revenue of $50.5 billion on Thursday, with adjusted EPS of $0.45 handily beating Wall Street estimates of $0.35 — a 27.2% surprise. But the quarter wasn’t without drama: a fire at aluminum supplier Novelis in early September disrupted F-Series production hard enough that Ford was forced to lower its full-year guidance.
Adjusted EBIT came in at $2.6 billion for the quarter, with adjusted free cash flow of $4.3 billion — healthy numbers that show the Ford+ plan is delivering at the top line even as operational headwinds bite. The Blue Oval’s mainstream business units — Ford Blue (ICE trucks and SUVs), Ford Pro (commercial vans and fleet), and Ford Model e (EVs) — all contributed, though Model e remains a drag on overall profitability as expected.
The Novelis Factor
The fire at Novelis’ Kentucky aluminum mill cut F-150 production by an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 units in Q3, according to CFO John Lawler. Ford moved quickly to qualify alternative suppliers and recovered some volume before quarter’s end, but the disruption was material. The company lowered its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to $6.0–$6.5 billion from the prior range of $6.5–$7.5 billion — a meaningful reduction.
The Novelis incident is a reminder of how concentrated supply chains can ambush even sophisticated automakers. Ford’s decision to respond fast on supplier diversification should help insulate Q4, but analysts will be watching F-Series inventory levels closely heading into the holiday sales season.
EV Progress Continues
Despite the Model e division still burning cash, Ford’s overall EV sales showed strength heading into Q4. The F-150 Lightning production ramp — which hit 8,400 units in October — continued to gain momentum in November and December. Ford has guided to 8% operating margin for its Model e unit by late 2026, a target that looks ambitious given ongoing pricing pressure from Tesla and new EV entrants, but one that CEO Jim Farley has refused to walk back.
Ford also flagged that its commercial EV portfolio — the E-Transit van in particular — is seeing stronger-than-expected fleet uptake in urban last-mile delivery, where lower operating costs are driving payback periods below three years for many fleet operators.
Looking Ahead
The Q3 results show that Ford+ is working at the revenue level. The challenge is margins: ICE pricing power is softening as loan rates stay high, EVs are still subsidizing growth, and supply chain surprises can reverse progress fast. Ford’s 2026 roadmap includes refreshedExplorer and Capri EVs for Europe, a more affordable entry EV targeted at early 2026, and continued ramp of the Lightning. None of those will move the margin needle immediately, but they’re the right bets for 2027 and beyond.
Ford’s electric future is being built truck by truck. Keep yours protected.
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