J.D. Power Forecasts 60% EV Sales Plunge in October After Tax Credit Expires
J.D. Power and GlobalData project U.S. retail EV sales will fall roughly 60% in October 2025 as the federal $7,500 tax credit expiration pulls purchases forward into Q3, leaving October at just 5.2% market share.
The U.S. electric vehicle market was bracing for impact in early October 2025, with analysts projecting a steep sales decline following the September 30 expiration of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit. J.D. Power and GlobalData forecast that U.S. retail EV sales would plunge approximately 60% in October compared to September 2025 levels, potentially capturing just 5.2% market share — a sharp comedown from the record pace set in Q3.
The forecast, released October 23, 2025, called for October 2025 total new vehicle sales of approximately 1.25 million units, representing a 6.9% decline year over year. But the EV-specific numbers were the real story.
Why the cliff?
The federal EV tax credit, which had been a cornerstone of U.S. EV incentives, expired at the end of September 2025 following the expiration of the Biden-era legislation that had extended and expanded the credits. Without it, EVs became significantly more expensive on an upfront basis.
“Buyers had been pulling purchases forward since the credit’s phase-out was announced,” said Tyson Jominy, VP of EV Intelligence at J.D. Power. “September became an artificially inflated month as consumers rushed to get vehicles delivered before the deadline. October is the reckoning.”
J.D. Power estimated that roughly 438,000 EVs were sold in Q3 2025 across the U.S., a quarterly record driven in part by accelerated purchases ahead of the credit expiration. That Q3 surge effectively borrowed from Q4.
The 5.2% market share estimate
If EV share fell to 5.2% in October as projected, it would represent a dramatic retreat from the roughly 11.6% share EV segment had reached in September 2025. That kind of volatility — a near-halving of market share in a single month — underscores how dependent the U.S. EV market remains on policy incentives.
For context, EV market share in the U.S. has never consistently cleared 10% in monthly sales. The September 2025 spike to 11.6% was an anomaly driven by purchase timing. October’s expected drop back toward 5% puts EV share near where it was in early 2023.
The broader new-vehicle market
It’s not just EVs feeling the pressure. J.D. Power estimated total retail vehicle deliveries in October would fall to approximately 1.05 million units, down 5.9% from a year prior. Average transaction prices remained elevated even as incentives ticked up slightly.
The overall auto market faced a complex environment: rising monthly payments, tight credit conditions for some buyers, and the ongoing transition away from ICE vehicles creating uncertainty on both the supply and demand sides.
But EV owners aren’t selling
One interesting data point from J.D. Power’s broader EV research: current EV owners aren’t leaving. The latest EV Experience Ownership Study found that 94% of current EV owners say they “definitely will” (79%) or “probably will” repurchase an EV as their next vehicle. Among lessees coming up for expiration, that intent is even higher.
The implication: the demand destruction from the tax credit expiration may be concentrated among first-time EV buyers, not among existing EV owners who have already experienced the benefits of home charging and lower operating costs. If that’s true, the market may recover faster than the October sales plunge suggests — once lease deals and manufacturer incentives fill the incentive gap.
What to watch
November and December sales data will be telling. If EV volumes stabilize — even at lower levels — it would suggest the market is finding a natural floor without subsidies. If the decline deepens, automakers will face difficult decisions about production cuts and pricing strategy heading into 2026.
EV ownership essentials
Whether you’re staying with your current EV or considering joining the market without a credit to lean on, the right setup matters:
- **** — If you have a plug-in hybrid or are between EVs, a battery maintainer keeps the 12V system healthy during extended parked periods.
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