300,000 EVs Are About to Hit the Used Market. Here's What That Means
A wave of off-lease electric vehicles — more than 300,000 in 2026 alone — is poised to reshape the used EV market, drive prices down significantly, and create new opportunities for buyers on a budget.
The used EV market is about to get very crowded. More than 300,000 electric vehicles are expected to come off lease in 2026 alone, according to Edmunds and multiple industry analysts, with the wave expected to continue into 2027 and beyond. For buyers who have been waiting for EVs to become affordable, this is a significant development.
Why Now?
The explanation is straightforward: the leasing boom of 2021-2023 is maturing. Leasing made sense for EVs during that period for several reasons. Federal tax credits made lease arrangements financially attractive. Company cars and fleet buyers — who often drive the leasing market — were moving toward EVs for ESG and compliance reasons. And early EV adopters, many of whom were lease customers, started returning their vehicles as those leases expired.
The result: a substantial volume of relatively young used EVs — many with under 50,000 miles and some with modern battery chemistries — are about to flood dealer lots and online marketplaces simultaneously.
What It Means for Prices
The supply surge is already showing up in data. Used EV prices have been trending down, and Edmunds analyst Joseph Yoon estimates that the incoming wave could push average used EV prices down 15-25% over the next 18 months, depending on the model and region.
This is a sharp reversal from the used car market of just a few years ago, when low supply kept prices elevated even for older, degraded-battery EVs. Today’s off-lease vehicles are, in many cases, much better products — with longer ranges, faster charging (thanks to the widespread adoption of 800V architecture and NACS compatibility), and more mature software ecosystems.
The Affordable EV Problem — Solved?
One of the biggest barriers to EV adoption has been upfront cost. Even as EVs have become more affordable on a monthly financing or leasing basis, the purchase price of a new EV has remained out of reach for many buyers. The used market hasn’t been a reliable solution because used EVs have historically carried price premiums over comparable combustion vehicles.
This wave may change that calculus. A three-year-old Hyundai Ioniq 5 or Kia EV6 — both of which leased heavily in 2022-2023 — could be available at significant discounts to new equivalents within the next year. Both vehicles offered 300+ miles of range in their more recent iterations and can charge at 800V stations, making them genuinely practical for most driving needs.
What to Watch For
Not all off-lease EVs are created equal. Early Nissan LEAFs and first-generation Chevrolet Bolts — both of which had limited range and slower DC charging — will also be part of this wave, and their values may not benefit as much. Battery health will be the key differentiator: vehicles that were regularly fast-charged may show accelerated degradation, while those that were primarily Level 2 charged at home should hold up well.
For buyers, the recommendation is straightforward: patience may be rewarded. The peak of the off-lease wave hits in mid-to-late 2026, and dealer lots — already cautious about EV inventory — will be motivated to move volume. Negotiating leverage will be stronger than it has been for used EVs in years.
For the industry, this is a double-edged sword. Lower used EV prices make EVs more accessible, which is good for adoption in the long run. But it also means new EV buyers absorb faster depreciation, which makes leasing and financing more expensive — a cycle that could slow the transition rather than accelerate it.
Get ready to shop the used EV market:
Related reading:
- The EV Industry Reset — how falling demand is reshaping the EV business
- NACS Charging Standard Takes Over — why charge compatibility matters for used EV buyers
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