October 2025 EV Forecast: Retail Share Falls as Tax Credits End

J.D. Power’s October 23, 2025 forecast put EVs at an estimated 5.2% of U.S. new-vehicle retail sales, versus September’s 12.9%. That is a 7.7-percentage-point decline in share, about 60% relatively; it is not a 43% fall in unit sales. The forecast put total new-vehicle sales at about 1,249,800, down 6.9% year over year, based on the first 16 selling days.

Why October Was Always Going to Be Ugly

Federal clean-vehicle credits were subject to vehicle, buyer and acquisition rules; they were not available to every mainstream buyer. The old manufacturer-volume phaseout no longer applied from 2023, so Tesla vehicles could still qualify if they met the other rules. Under the IRS’s 2025 tax-law guidance, the new, used and commercial clean-vehicle credits ended for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025, subject to the acquisition/taking-possession rules.

Buyers who were already in the market for an EV had a powerful financial incentive to close the deal before the credit expired. The result was a surge in September sales that pulled forward demand from October, November, and December. When October arrived without the credit, the market snapped back to a level that looked — by comparison — catastrophic.

The effect was particularly pronounced for brands like Hyundai and Kia, which had seen strong EV sales momentum in 2024 and early 2025. The Ioniq 5 and EV6, which had benefited from the credit along with strong product appeal, saw significant sales declines in October. Honda’s Prologue — an EV that was barely getting started in the US market — was also notably affected, with its early sales numbers distorted by the credit-driven September pull-forward.

What the Forecast Can Establish

The J.D. Power figures describe an expected retail-market mix, not audited final deliveries. Its current page’s heading says 5.3%, while the body and detailed table say 5.2%; this article uses the body and discloses that source inconsistency.

Forecasts, final sales, retail-only shares and all-channel volumes must be dated and kept separate.

Manufacturer Comparisons Need Later Reports

Ford’s later monthly results and an unlinked GM comparison are outside this October 27 forecast.

Tesla’s U.S. monthly deliveries cannot be inferred from global quarterly reports. Its eligibility depended on model and buyer conditions; Tesla buyers were not universally outside the federal credit from 2023 onward. No relative October resilience conclusion follows from that premise.

What Comes Next

The October data leaves the industry with an uncomfortable question: what does the US EV market look like without a federal incentive? The answer will arrive over the coming months as the comparison base normalizes. November and December numbers will be watched closely to determine whether EV share stabilizes around the 5-6 percent range or continues to decline.

The forecast is consistent with a purchase pull-forward around an incentive deadline, but it is not a controlled estimate of incentives’ causal effect or a current rebate offer.